Erich Schubert: How Microsoft might already have lost the desktop wars
I was recently asked to help someone understand the OpenSource movement, and
the effects it might have on companies such as Oracle or SAP.
I talked a bit that these companies can benefit from being independant of big
vendors like Microsoft, while still not having to do everything themselves.
But also on how opensource alternatives to their products will threaten their
business in the long run and force them to be more innovative and constantly
improve their product.
I then talked about the 'viral' aspects in OpenSource; not about that GPL
licensing bullshit (just read the licenses of stuff you want to use, and don't
use them if you don't like the license...; this virality is highly overrated
due to Microsofts FUD), but a very different kind of virality:
Let's say you are supposed to evaluate different CMS solutions. So you install
one or another that sounds promising. Most likely you'll install an opensource
database like MySQL or Postgresql. And when you've decided upon a solution,
you are quite likely to go with this database, and say to yourself: "if MySQL
doesn't scale up well enough for our needs, we can still but an Oracle license".
This would be probably different if you had had installed Oracle in the first
place. Say a demo or so. But the demo versions of the CMS you tried already
made you comfortable in using MySQL; it's easy to install (most likely included
with your system anyway), and it just works. But would you have tried a CMS
in first place that actuall required you to setup Oracle?
Anyway, this "social" virality brought me to another point: developers and
administrators.
When you see numbers on the market share of Microsoft, they're still huge. Some
95% of users are using Microsoft as their primary operation system (I'm
discounting the fact that a huge share of DSL modems here is running Linux,
so actually many people are Linux users, and I'm also discounting the use of
www.google.com, which would make 99.9% of people Linux users...).
But these are the average users. But they aren't on their own. The software
choice of the "average user" is influenced by a couple of factors, including:
- if anything goes wrong, whom can I call for help?
- company (administrative, security) policies
- word of mouth and (software) recommendations